Computing infection distributions and longitudinal evolution patterns in lung CT images.

BACKGROUND: Spatial and temporal lung infection distributions of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and their changes could reveal important patterns to better understand the disease and its time course. This paper presents a pipeline to analyze statistically these patterns by automatically segmenting the infection regions and registering them onto a common template. METHODS: A VB-Net is designed to automatically segment infection regions in CT images. After training and validating the model, we segmented all the CT images in the study. The segmentation results are then warped onto a pre-defined template CT image using deformable registration based on lung fields. Then, the spatial distributions of infection regions and those during the course of the disease are calculated at the voxel level. Visualization and quantitative comparison can be performed between different groups. We compared the distribution maps between COVID-19 and community acquired pneumonia (CAP), between severe and critical COVID-19, and across the time course of the disease. RESULTS: For the performance of infection segmentation, comparing the segmentation results with manually annotated ground-truth, the average Dice is 91.6% ± 10.0%, which is close to the inter-rater difference between two radiologists (the Dice is 96.1% ± 3.5%). The distribution map of infection regions shows that high probability regions are in the peripheral subpleural (up to 35.1% in probability). COVID-19 GGO lesions are more widely spread than consolidations, and the latter are located more peripherally. Onset images of severe COVID-19 (inpatients) show similar lesion distributions but with smaller areas of significant difference in the right lower lobe compared to critical COVID-19 (intensive care unit patients). About the disease course, critical COVID-19 patients showed four subsequent patterns (progression, absorption, enlargement, and further absorption) in our collected dataset, with remarkable concurrent HU patterns for GGO and consolidations. CONCLUSIONS: By segmenting the infection regions with a VB-Net and registering all the CT images and the segmentation results onto a template, spatial distribution patterns of infections can be computed automatically. The algorithm provides an effective tool to visualize and quantify the spatial patterns of lung infection diseases and their changes during the disease course. Our results demonstrate different patterns between COVID-19 and CAP, between severe and critical COVID-19, as well as four subsequent disease course patterns of the severe COVID-19 patients studied, with remarkable concurrent HU patterns for GGO and consolidations.

Joint prediction and time estimation of COVID-19 developing severe symptoms using chest CT scan.

With the rapidly worldwide spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it is of great importance to conduct early diagnosis of COVID-19 and predict the conversion time that patients possibly convert to the severe stage, for designing effective treatment plans and reducing the clinicians' workloads. In this study, we propose a joint classification and regression method to determine whether the patient would develop severe symptoms in the later time formulated as a classification task, and if yes, the conversion time will be predicted formulated as a classification task. To do this, the proposed method takes into account 1) the weight for each sample to reduce the outliers' influence and explore the problem of imbalance classification, and 2) the weight for each feature via a sparsity regularization term to remove the redundant features of the high-dimensional data and learn the shared information across two tasks, i.e., the classification and the regression. To our knowledge, this study is the first work to jointly predict the disease progression and the conversion time, which could help clinicians to deal with the potential severe cases in time or even save the patients' lives. Experimental analysis was conducted on a real data set from two hospitals with 408 chest computed tomography (CT) scans. Results show that our method achieves the best classification (e.g., 85.91% of accuracy) and regression (e.g., 0.462 of the correlation coefficient) performance, compared to all comparison methods. Moreover, our proposed method yields 76.97% of accuracy for predicting the severe cases, 0.524 of the correlation coefficient, and 0.55 days difference for the conversion time.